Pattani 0-3 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Prachuap travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattani stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pattani at 2.00 PPG versus Prachuap's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.97 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.728 / defence 0.982 | Prachuap attack 0.844 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.174. Pattani's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Pattani games / 32 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 34% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 34%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Prachuap 2.94. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 34% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Pattani 0.97 / Prachuap 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.728 / def 0.982 | Prachuap attack 0.844 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Prachuap xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Prachuap kick off?
Pattani vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattani vs Prachuap?
Pattani 0 - 3 Prachuap.
Where is Pattani vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Prachuap part of?
Pattani vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 34% chance of winning, Prachuap a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pattani and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Prachuap in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pattani's attack at 0.73x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
34%
2.93
31%
3.18
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Pattani xG
Total xG
1.94
0.97
Prachuap xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Pattani and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Pattani and 0.97 for Prachuap, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pattani by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Prachuap in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Pattani or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Prachuap in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pattani and Prachuap runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Prachuap?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 0, Prachuap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Pattani 0-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pattani's recent matches and 0% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 0% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pattani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Pattani 0-3 at Rainbow Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattani 0.97 xG and Prachuap 0.97 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pattani fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Prachuap outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattani attack 0.73 / defence 0.98 against Prachuap attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pattani 34% | Draw 31% | Prachuap 34%, with Pattani to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattani 50%, Prachuap 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pattani arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pattani managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.