Pattani vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pattani host Port FC at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pattani — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.40 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Pattani's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.94 xG and Port FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.712 / defence 0.976 | Port FC attack 1.186 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Pattani's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 1 Pattani games / 31 Port FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Port FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Pattani 0.94 / Port FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.712 / def 0.976 | Port FC attack 1.186 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Port FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Port FC xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Port FC kick off?
Pattani vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Port FC part of?
Pattani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 27% chance of winning, Port FC a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pattani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Port FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.71) and Port FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.34
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.20
1.26
Port FC xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
17%
5.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pattani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pattani and 1.26 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pattani come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattani are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Port FC's attacking output running into Pattani's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Port FC in 100%.
Defensively: Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Port FC in 0%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Pattani's recent matches and 100% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pattani's recent games and 100% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Port FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.