Pattani vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pattani host Port FC at Rainbow Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pattani — All Games: 2W 1D 4L from 7 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani at Rainbow Stadium this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Pattani's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pattani, 1 for Port FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 2–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pattani in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Port FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 57% and Port FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 71% | Port FC 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.73 xG and Port FC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.617 / defence 1.033 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Pattani's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Pattani games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 16% | Draw 27% | Port FC 57%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 25% | Port FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 16% | Draw 27% | Port FC 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Pattani 0.73 / Port FC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.617 / def 1.033 | Port FC attack 1.047 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Port FC xG
42%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Port FC kick off?
Pattani vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Port FC part of?
Pattani vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 16% chance of winning, Port FC a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Pattani 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Pattani and Port FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.62) and Port FC's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 0-2 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
16%
6.09
27%
3.70
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.31
1.58
Port FC xG
6.09
16%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
3%
29.47
27%
3.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pattani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Pattani and 1.58 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Port FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pattani come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 2.57 PPG from 7 outings (6W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.57 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pattani's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.57 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 6W 0D 1L in their last 7 (2.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Port FC away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Port FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Pattani have won 0, Port FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Port FC 3-2 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Pattani and 75% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 75% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Pattani's matches and 75% of Port FC's.
Do Pattani and Port FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.