Pattani vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Pattani welcome Chiangrai United to Rainbow Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pattani have posted 1W 1D 2L at Rainbow Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Pattani) versus 1.40 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Pattani in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 57% versus Chiangrai United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 71% | Chiangrai United 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.94 xG and Chiangrai United 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.620 / defence 1.046 | Chiangrai United attack 0.816 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Pattani's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Pattani games / 36 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 28% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 42%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Chiangrai United 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pattani 25% | Chiangrai United 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 28% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Pattani 0.94 / Chiangrai United 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.620 / def 1.046 | Chiangrai United attack 0.816 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Chiangrai United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 28% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pattani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in?
Pattani (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.62) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.42
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.17
1.23
Chiangrai United xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pattani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Pattani and 1.23 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pattani on 1.00 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pattani have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pattani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Chiangrai United away?
Pattani's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 33%, Chiangrai United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pattani) and 33% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games; Chiangrai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pattani's recent matches and 67% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pattani's recent games and 33% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.