Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nong Bua Pitchaya welcome Rayong FC to Pitchaya Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya at Pitchaya Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Nong Bua Pitchaya) versus 1.00 (Rayong FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Rayong FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rayong FC trading profile (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 65% and Rayong FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 61% | Rayong FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.874 / defence 1.067 | Rayong FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.206. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Nong Bua Pitchaya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 23 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 55% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Rayong FC 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Nong Bua Pitchaya (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nong Bua Pitchaya at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% | Rayong FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 55% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.99 / Rayong FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.874 / def 1.067 | Rayong FC attack 0.928 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Rayong FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 55% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
55%
1.80
22%
4.44
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.18
1.19
Rayong FC xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
3%
33.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.19 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayong FC sit at 0.96 PPG from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 0.96 PPG, Rayong FC on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home form reads 4W 4D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayong FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.30 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Rayong FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.60 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%, Rayong FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 70% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 30% of games; Rayong FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 50% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 70% of Rayong FC's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Rayong FC finished level at 1-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Rayong FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.40, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 55% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 22%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 61%, Rayong FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.96 PPG, Rayong FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.