Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Ratchaburi travel to 80th Birthday Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 August 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 80th Birthday Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 66% and Ratchaburi 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56% | Ratchaburi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 xG and Ratchaburi 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.813 / defence 0.967 | Ratchaburi attack 1.162 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.403. Data: 32 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 32 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 45%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 2.22. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 / Ratchaburi 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.813 / def 0.967 | Ratchaburi attack 1.162 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Ratchaburi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 29% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.81) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
29%
3.39
26%
3.85
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.82
1.58
Ratchaburi xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.40
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.58 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 8W 12D 12L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 16W 8D 8L from 32 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (5W 7D 4L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.09 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 8W 12D 12L in their last 32 games (1.12 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 16W 8D 8L in their last 32 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 81%, Ratchaburi at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 62% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 62% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-2 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 xG and Ratchaburi 1.58 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against Ratchaburi attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 29% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 45%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%, Ratchaburi 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.