Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium plays host to Nakhon Pathom versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.67 PPG across their last 3 games: 1W 2D 0L. Last five: D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Uthai Thani's record over their last 3 games: 0W 0D 3L (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
The points-per-game gap of 1.67 in Nakhon Pathom's favour (1.67 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 67% versus Uthai Thani 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 67% | Uthai Thani 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.88 xG and Uthai Thani 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.935 / defence 1.192 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.074. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 1.251 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nakhon Pathom's projected output up. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Nakhon Pathom's last 3 games and Uthai Thani's last 3.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 58% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 18%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 1.72 | Draw 4.22 | Uthai Thani 5.53. The model has a clear lean to Nakhon Pathom (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nakhon Pathom at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Pathom's last 3 games and Uthai Thani's last 3 games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nakhon Pathom 67% (last 3 games) | Uthai Thani 33% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 58% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.88 / Uthai Thani 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.935 / def 1.192 | Uthai Thani attack 0.749 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Monday 18 September 2023 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Pathom 2 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 58% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.75x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Nakhon Pathom's last 3 games and Uthai Thani's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.22
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.84
0.96
Uthai Thani xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 0.96 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 1W 2D 0L record — D-W-D across the most recent five.
Uthai Thani's form line: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L.
Put side by side, Nakhon Pathom are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 0.33 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
Have Nakhon Pathom or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Pathom have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 67%, Uthai Thani 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nakhon Pathom and 67% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Pathom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Nakhon Pathom's recent matches and 33% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's recent matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nakhon Pathom edge out Uthai Thani 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Uthai Thani 2-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.88 xG and Uthai Thani 0.96 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Uthai Thani attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 58% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 18%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 67%, Uthai Thani 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Pathom arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Uthai Thani conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.