Ratchaburi 6-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 41%, yet in-form Police Tero provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Police Tero at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Dragon Solar Park this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Police Tero's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Police Tero — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Police Tero in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 1 for Police Tero and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Police Tero winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Police Tero 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 21% | Police Tero 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Police Tero 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.804 / defence 0.970 | Police Tero attack 1.057 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.123. Data: 33 Ratchaburi games / 33 Police Tero games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 29%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Police Tero 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Police Tero (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Police Tero 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Ratchaburi 1.41 / Police Tero 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.804 / def 0.970 | Police Tero attack 1.057 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Police Tero xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Ratchaburi 6 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero part of?
Ratchaburi vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 41% chance of winning, Police Tero a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ratchaburi and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Record (4 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 3 | Police Tero 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Police Tero (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.34
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.56
1.15
Police Tero xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.15 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 12D 11L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Police Tero sit at 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.27 PPG, Police Tero on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 5W 8D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Police Tero have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Police Tero's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.42 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Police Tero
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 10W 12D 11L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Police Tero away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.44 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Police Tero?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Police Tero 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Ratchaburi) and 69% (Police Tero).
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ratchaburi's games and 69% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 69% of Police Tero's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Police Tero tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Police Tero 6-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Police Tero 1.15 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.80 / defence 0.97 against Police Tero attack 1.06 / defence 1.18, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 30% | Police Tero 29%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 21%, Police Tero 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.27 PPG, Police Tero 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.