Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 53%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to take on Nakhon Pathom. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.909 / defence 1.067 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.236. Data: 31 Nakhon Pathom games / 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.17. Nakhon Pathom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Pathom are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.78 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.909 / def 1.067 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.700 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.28
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.90
1.12
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
4%
24.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.12 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Pathom come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 3.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Nakhon Pathom's scoring rate against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-3 Nakhon Pathom.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.78 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 53% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 24%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 100%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 3.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.