Khon Kaen United 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khon Kaen United at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Khon Kaen Stadium to take on Khon Kaen United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 4W 6D 0L at Khon Kaen Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Sukhothai FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 1.40 PPG, Sukhothai FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khon Kaen United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Khon Kaen United: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 5–1 with Khon Kaen United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Khon Kaen United and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 55% versus Sukhothai FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 58% | Sukhothai FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 2.33 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 1.068 / defence 0.935 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.733 / away 1.237. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Khon Kaen United games / 31 Sukhothai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 66% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Sukhothai FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Khon Kaen United (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 60% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 66% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Khon Kaen United 2.33 / Sukhothai FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 1.068 / def 0.935 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.918 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.733 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sukhothai FC xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Khon Kaen United 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 66% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Khon Kaen United 3W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khon Kaen United's attack rating (1.07) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.41
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
3.39
1.06
Sukhothai FC xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
10%
10.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
64.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.06 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 11D 12L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.03 PPG from 31 outings (9W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.13 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 5W 9D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.13 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 11D 12L in their last 31 games (1.13 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 5D 17L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.60 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
1
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Sukhothai FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 60%, Sukhothai FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Khon Kaen United and 80% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 27% of games; Sukhothai FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Khon Kaen United's games and 67% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 80% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Khon Kaen United and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 2.33 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.26, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 66% | Draw 18% | Sukhothai FC 16%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 58%, Sukhothai FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.13 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.