Muangthong United 0-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Prachuap at Thunder Dome Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Muangthong United — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's home record at Thunder Dome Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Muangthong United at 1.70 PPG versus Prachuap's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Muangthong United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Prachuap, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with Muangthong United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Muangthong United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Prachuap trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 67% and Prachuap 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 64% | Prachuap 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.10 xG and Prachuap 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.036 / defence 0.803 | Prachuap attack 0.795 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.114. Data: 39 Muangthong United games / 41 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 67% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 9%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (67%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 40% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 67% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Muangthong United 2.10 / Prachuap 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.036 / def 0.803 | Prachuap attack 0.795 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (67%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Prachuap xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Prachuap kick off?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Muangthong United 0 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Muangthong United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Prachuap part of?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 67% chance of winning, Prachuap a 9% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Muangthong United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Record (6 meetings): Muangthong United 5W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 0W.
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
67%
1.48
23%
4.28
9%
10.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.81
0.71
Prachuap xG
1.48
67%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
10.86
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
12%
8.18
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
1%
88.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.71 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 19W 9D 11L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 11W 13D 15L from 39 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.26 PPG from 19 outings (13W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 0W 8D 11L from 19 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.23 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 11W 13D 15L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Prachuap away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.26 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Prachuap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 58%, Prachuap 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Muangthong United) and 42% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Prachuap in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Muangthong United's games and 63% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Muangthong United's recent games and 42% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Muangthong United 0-2 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.10 xG and Prachuap 0.71 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Prachuap outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.04 / defence 0.80 against Prachuap attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 39/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 67% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 9%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 64%, Prachuap 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.