Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Rayong FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Rayong FC have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG, Rayong FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Lamphun Warrior have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Rayong FC have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 4–0 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lamphun Warrior and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamphun Warrior 65% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Rayong FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.05 xG and Rayong FC 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / defence 1.187 | Rayong FC attack 1.069 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lamphun Warrior games / 37 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Rayong FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 60% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 43% | Draw 22% | Rayong FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.05 / Rayong FC 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.000 / def 1.187 | Rayong FC attack 1.069 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Rayong FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 43% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
Record (5 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 3W | Draws 2 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
43%
2.34
22%
4.52
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.89
1.85
Rayong FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.84
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.85
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.85 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 7W 18D 12L from 37 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 14L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.05 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 3W 10D 5L from 18 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 12L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Rayong FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.06 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2026, when Lamphun Warrior won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 3, Rayong FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Rayong FC 0-4 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 72%, Rayong FC at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Lamphun Warrior and 67% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 83% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 67% of Rayong FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.