Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Police Tero travel to Mae Guang Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mae Guang Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at Mae Guang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lamphun Warrior are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Police Tero and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Police Tero in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 48% versus Police Tero 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Police Tero 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.92 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / defence 1.004 | Police Tero attack 0.996 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.112. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Lamphun Warrior games / 53 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.35 | Draw 6.67 | Police Tero 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.92 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Police Tero 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 64% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.92 / Police Tero 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.120 / def 1.004 | Police Tero attack 0.996 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Police Tero xG
64%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 74% chance of winning, Police Tero a 11% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero?
Record (3 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 3 | Police Tero 0W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Police Tero (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamphun Warrior's attack at 1.12x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
74%
1.36
15%
6.54
11%
9.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
4.03
1.11
Police Tero xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.54
15%
Draw
9.09
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
5%
18.50
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
1%
168.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.11 for Police Tero, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 17W 14D 21L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 21L across 52 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.25 PPG, Police Tero on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 13W 7D 5L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Police Tero's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero in 69%.
Last 52 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Police Tero away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.84 PPG; Police Tero away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
0
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Police Tero have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lamphun Warrior at 64%, Police Tero at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lamphun Warrior and 72% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 72% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 72% of Police Tero's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Police Tero finished level at 1-1 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.92 xG and Police Tero 1.11 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Police Tero attack 1.00 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 74% | Draw 15% | Police Tero 11%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 48%, Police Tero 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.25 PPG, Police Tero 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.