Chonburi FC 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Chonburi UTA Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Chonburi UTA Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Chonburi FC, 1.70 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Chonburi FC 2W, Ratchaburi 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 57% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 51% | Ratchaburi 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.39 xG and Ratchaburi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.980 / defence 0.938 | Ratchaburi attack 0.809 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.123. Ratchaburi's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Chonburi FC games / 53 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 4.55. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 50% | Ratchaburi 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Chonburi FC 1.39 / Ratchaburi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.980 / def 0.938 | Ratchaburi attack 0.809 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ratchaburi xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Chonburi FC 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 48% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (5 meetings): Chonburi FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.98) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.81x) against Chonburi FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.29
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.24
0.85
Ratchaburi xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
5%
18.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.85 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 19W 11D 23L from 53 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 18L across 53 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.38 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 13W 5D 8L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 5W 8D 13L across 26 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.19 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 50%, Ratchaburi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Chonburi FC) and 35% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 42% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 35% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chonburi FC 0-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.39 xG and Ratchaburi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Ratchaburi attack 0.81 / defence 0.80, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 51%, Ratchaburi 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.28 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.