Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamphun Warrior welcome Nakhon Ratchasima FC to Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Lamphun Warrior have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home: 2W 4D 2L from their last 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.10 (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Lamphun Warrior 1–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 50% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.885 / defence 1.365 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.873 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.193. Lamphun Warrior's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output up. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 46 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 16.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 8 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% (last 8 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 17 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.40 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.885 / def 1.365 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.873 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior 3 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 17) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 36% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 46 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.70
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.82
1.42
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
9%
10.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.42 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 4W 5D 7L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.06 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 8 home games (3W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 4D 2L from their last 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 62%.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.50 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamphun Warrior) and 38% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 38% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.89 / defence 1.36 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 36% | Draw 27% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 37%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.06 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.