Lamphun Warrior 0-1 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khon Kaen United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Lamphun Warrior's 1.40 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Khon Kaen United's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Lamphun Warrior 0W, Khon Kaen United 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Khon Kaen United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 59% versus Khon Kaen United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 62% | Khon Kaen United 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.83 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.169 / defence 1.062 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.781 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.112. Data: 39 Lamphun Warrior games / 39 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 16%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Khon Kaen United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Khon Kaen United lead the H2H ledger, but Lamphun Warrior carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Khon Kaen United 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.83 / Khon Kaen United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.169 / def 1.062 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.781 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Khon Kaen United xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 1 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 56% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
Record (4 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 2 | Khon Kaen United 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (0.78x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
56%
1.78
28%
3.60
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.75
0.92
Khon Kaen United xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
39.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.92 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 10D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.97 PPG from 39 outings (8W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 0.97 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 10W 4D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (3W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 14D 17L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.89 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 72%, Khon Kaen United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Lamphun Warrior) and 56% (Khon Kaen United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 44% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 56% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Lamphun Warrior 0-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.83 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.17 / defence 1.06 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 56% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 16%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 62%, Khon Kaen United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.18 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.