Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Uthai Thani are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Uthai Thani in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 57% and Uthai Thani 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 49% | Uthai Thani 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.23 xG and Uthai Thani 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.885 / defence 1.103 | Uthai Thani attack 1.152 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Data: 35 Chonburi FC games / 35 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 46%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Uthai Thani 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Chonburi FC 1.23 / Uthai Thani 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.885 / def 1.103 | Uthai Thani attack 1.152 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Uthai Thani xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 28% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (4 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 3 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.89) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.15x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
28%
3.56
26%
3.88
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.63
Uthai Thani xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.63 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 9D 16L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.17 PPG from 35 outings (10W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.17 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chonburi FC's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (4W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.46 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 66%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 9D 16L in their last 35 games (1.11 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 61%, Uthai Thani 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Uthai Thani in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Chonburi FC's games and 67% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.