Chonburi FC 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Chonburi FC welcome Rayong FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's home record at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 0, Rayong FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Rayong FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 56% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 44% | Rayong FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / defence 1.036 | Rayong FC attack 0.951 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.114. Data: 25 Chonburi FC games / 54 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Rayong FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Rayong FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Chonburi FC 1.42 / Rayong FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.878 / def 1.036 | Rayong FC attack 0.951 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rayong FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Chonburi FC 4 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 42% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chonburi FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.88) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.13
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.10
Rayong FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.10 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 8W 7D 10L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 9L across 25 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.24 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 1, Rayong FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Chonburi FC 4-1 Rayong FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 58%, Rayong FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Rayong FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Chonburi FC's games and 75% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Rayong FC 4-1 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.42 xG and Rayong FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Rayong FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 32% | Rayong FC 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 44%, Rayong FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.24 PPG, Rayong FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.