Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Port FC travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Chonburi FC, 4 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Port FC trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Port FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 39% | Port FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.796 / defence 1.059 | Port FC attack 1.004 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.063. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Chonburi FC games / 48 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 29% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Port FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 62% | Port FC 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 29% | Port FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Chonburi FC 1.22 / Port FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.796 / def 1.059 | Port FC attack 1.004 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Port FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Port FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Chonburi FC 3 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Port FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 38% chance of winning, Port FC a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chonburi FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
Record (7 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chonburi FC's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.43
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.13
Port FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.13 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 18 games, going 4W 6D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (3W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.89 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 4W 6D 8L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Port FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.12 PPG; Port FC away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Port FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 4, Port FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Port FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 62%, Port FC 12% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Chonburi FC and 12% for Port FC.
On the defensive side: Port FC in 38%; Port FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 12% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 12% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Port FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Port FC 3-2 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Port FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 29% | Port FC 33%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 39%, Port FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.