Chonburi FC 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Chonburi Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chonburi Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Chonburi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chonburi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 0 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 67% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 56% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.85 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.159 / defence 1.101 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.190. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Chonburi FC games / 27 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 70% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Chonburi FC 1.85 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.159 / def 1.101 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chonburi FC 1 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 55% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.16) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.82
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.04
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
3%
32.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.04 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chonburi FC come into this having played 27 games, going 12W 7D 8L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 27 outings (8W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chonburi FC's home form reads 8W 4D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.71 points per game from 14 outings (2W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 12W 7D 8L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 8W 7D 12L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 71%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chonburi FC's games and 64% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Chonburi FC 1-2 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.85 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.54, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 55% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 56%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.