Chonburi FC 1-3 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Chiangrai United travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC at Chonburi UTA Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chiangrai United are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 0, Chiangrai United 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 60% versus Chiangrai United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 53% | Chiangrai United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 2.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.106 / defence 1.079 | Chiangrai United attack 0.823 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.174. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Chonburi FC games / 55 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 19%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Chiangrai United 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Chiangrai United (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Chiangrai United 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Chonburi FC 2.01 / Chiangrai United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.106 / def 1.079 | Chiangrai United attack 0.823 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 3 Chiangrai United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 60% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (3 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.11) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.67
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
3.05
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
13%
7.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
39.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.04 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 23W 12D 20L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 17L across 55 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.47 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 15W 5D 7L from 27 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 11W 7D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.24 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 22W 16D 17L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.85 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-3 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 59%, Chiangrai United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Chonburi FC) and 48% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Chonburi FC's games and 56% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 48% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Chonburi FC 1-3 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 2.01 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.08 against Chiangrai United attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 60% | Draw 21% | Chiangrai United 19%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 53%, Chiangrai United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.47 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.