Chonburi FC 1-1 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chonburi Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Bangkok United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 26 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Chonburi FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Chonburi Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Chonburi FC, 1.20 for Bangkok United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chonburi FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Bangkok United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 59% versus Bangkok United 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 54% | Bangkok United 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.35 xG and Bangkok United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.244 / defence 1.159 | Bangkok United attack 0.712 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.090. Data: 22 Chonburi FC games / 22 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 25%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Bangkok United 4.00. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Bangkok United 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Chonburi FC 1.35 / Bangkok United 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.244 / def 1.159 | Bangkok United attack 0.712 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Bangkok United xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Bangkok United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 47% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chonburi FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Bangkok United 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 1.24x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (0.71x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.60
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Bangkok United xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.90 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 10W 5D 7L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 11W 5D 6L from 22 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Chonburi FC against 1.73 for Bangkok United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Chonburi FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 5W 1D 6L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.45 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Bangkok United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Chonburi FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bangkok United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bangkok United won 6-0 on 31 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bangkok United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 67%, Bangkok United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chonburi FC) and 33% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bangkok United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 33% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 33% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Chonburi FC and Bangkok United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.35 xG and Bangkok United 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.16 against Bangkok United attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 47% | Draw 28% | Bangkok United 25%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Bangkok United 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (22 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Bangkok United's trading profile (22 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.59 PPG, Bangkok United 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.