Chiangrai United 0-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 43%, yet in-form Sukhothai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC meet at Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Chiangrai United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sukhothai FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sukhothai FC are 0.90 PPG clear of Chiangrai United over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Sukhothai FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Chiangrai United 1–2 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 45% versus Sukhothai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 43% | Sukhothai FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.68 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.783 / defence 1.172 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.149. Chiangrai United's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.68. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.271 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 42 games and Sukhothai FC's last 44.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 43% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.31 | Draw 3.52 | Sukhothai FC 3.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 40% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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