Sukhothai FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sukhothai FC welcome Khon Kaen United to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Sukhothai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Khon Kaen United have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Sukhothai FC.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Khon Kaen United have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 60% versus Khon Kaen United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 67% | Khon Kaen United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.36 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.254 / defence 1.059 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.747 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.208. Sukhothai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Sukhothai FC games / 45 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 68% | Draw 20% | Khon Kaen United 13%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Khon Kaen United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Khon Kaen United lead the H2H ledger, but Sukhothai FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 50% | Khon Kaen United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 68% | Draw 20% | Khon Kaen United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.36 / Khon Kaen United 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.254 / def 1.059 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.747 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Khon Kaen United xG
57%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 68% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (5 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Khon Kaen United 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.25x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.13
13%
7.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.31
0.96
Khon Kaen United xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
7.83
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
9%
10.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
1%
82.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.96 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 8D 22L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 0.93 PPG from 45 outings (9W 15D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.18 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 12W 1D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.71 points per game from 21 outings (4W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.11 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 15W 8D 22L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 9W 15D 21L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Khon Kaen United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Sukhothai FC 1-0 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 57%, Khon Kaen United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sukhothai FC) and 52% (Khon Kaen United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 43% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 52% of Khon Kaen United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Khon Kaen United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Khon Kaen United 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.36 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.96 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 68% | Draw 20% | Khon Kaen United 13%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 67%, Khon Kaen United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.