Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Ratchaburi travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chiangrai United's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Ratchaburi's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Chiangrai United 0–3 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 67% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 56% | Ratchaburi 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.09 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.855 / defence 1.133 | Ratchaburi attack 0.807 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.212. Ratchaburi bring a tight defence (rating 0.760, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Chiangrai United's projected output down. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 55 games and Ratchaburi's last 55.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 35% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 35%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.89 | Draw 3.34 | Ratchaburi 2.82. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Chiangrai United 35% and Ratchaburi 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 40% (last 10 away games).

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