BG Pathum United 1-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to BG Stadium to face BG Pathum United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
BG Pathum United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BG Pathum United have posted 5W 4D 1L at BG Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — BG Pathum United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for BG Pathum United, 2 for Port FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BG Pathum United 51% and Port FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 54% | Port FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.69 xG and Port FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.212 / defence 0.953 | Port FC attack 1.280 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.196. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 BG Pathum United games / 55 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 24% | Port FC 33%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Port FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 70% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 24% | Port FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG BG Pathum United 1.69 / Port FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.212 / def 0.953 | Port FC attack 1.280 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Port FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Port FC kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Port FC kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Port FC?
BG Pathum United 1 - 3 Port FC.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Port FC part of?
BG Pathum United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 43% chance of winning, Port FC a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both BG Pathum United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): BG Pathum United 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Port FC in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.28x) against BG Pathum United's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.14
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
3.14
1.46
Port FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.46 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
BG Pathum United's recent record stands at 23W 14D 18L from 55 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 11L across 55 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for BG Pathum United against 1.78 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, BG Pathum United have managed 16W 6D 5L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 9W 12D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 73%.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Port FC in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 17D 11L in their last 55 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Port FC away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Port FC away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BG Pathum United have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BG Pathum United
1
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 6, Port FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Port FC 0-0 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Port FC?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for BG Pathum United, 74% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for BG Pathum United and 59% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of BG Pathum United's games and 74% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of BG Pathum United's matches and 59% of Port FC's.
Do BG Pathum United and Port FC tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Port FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat BG Pathum United 1-3 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.69 xG and Port FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.21 / defence 0.95 against Port FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 43% | Draw 24% | Port FC 33%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 54%, Port FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.51 PPG, Port FC 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.