Chiangrai United 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 5W 4D 1L at LEO Chiangrai Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Chiangrai United's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 46% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.72 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.163 / defence 0.863 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.138. Data: 39 Chiangrai United games / 39 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Chiangrai United 1.72 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.163 / def 0.863 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.841 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chiangrai United 1 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 59% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangrai United's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.84x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.23
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.54
0.83
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
31.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 0.83 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 17W 11D 11L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form line: 13W 10D 16L from 39 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.26 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 17W 11D 11L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 13W 10D 16L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.44 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chiangrai United won 1-4 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
3
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 39%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chiangrai United) and 56% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 39% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 61% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 56% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.72 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 59% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 18%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.59 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.