Chiangrai United 3-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Muangthong United at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Chiangrai United) versus 1.30 (Muangthong United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Muangthong United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 1 for Muangthong United and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 49% versus Muangthong United 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 42% | Muangthong United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.51 xG and Muangthong United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.086 / defence 0.772 | Muangthong United attack 1.148 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.206. Chiangrai United's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Chiangrai United games / 43 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 3.85. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Muangthong United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Chiangrai United 1.51 / Muangthong United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.086 / def 0.772 | Muangthong United attack 1.148 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Muangthong United xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Chiangrai United 3 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 47% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chiangrai United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.09x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.70
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
Muangthong United xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.07 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 13D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.49 PPG from 43 outings (16W 16D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chiangrai United on 1.56 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 8W 7D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.00 points per game from 21 outings (4W 9D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.56 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 63%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 16W 16D 11L in their last 43 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Muangthong United away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.48 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 43%, Muangthong United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chiangrai United) and 33% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 33% of games; Muangthong United in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 52% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 33% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Muangthong United 3-1 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.51 xG and Muangthong United 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.09 / defence 0.77 against Muangthong United attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 47% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 26%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 42%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.56 PPG, Muangthong United 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.