Chiangmai United 0-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to 700th Anniversary Stadium to face Chiangmai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Thursday 7 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangmai United have collected 1.00 PPG across 5 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC (all games): 2W 2D 1L across 5 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Port FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Port FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Chiangmai United half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangmai United 80% and Port FC 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 80% | Port FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.827 / defence 1.215 | Port FC attack 0.796 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.312. Data: 5 Chiangmai United games / 5 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 36% | Port FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Port FC 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 80% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 36% | Port FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Chiangmai United 1.11 / Port FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.827 / def 1.215 | Port FC attack 0.796 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Port FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Port FC kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Port FC?
Chiangmai United 0 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Port FC part of?
Chiangmai United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 28% chance of winning, Port FC a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chiangmai United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and Port FC in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Port FC (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangmai United's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.80x) against Chiangmai United's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
28%
3.51
36%
2.82
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
Port FC xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.27 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangmai United come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangmai United are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Port FC in 60%.
Defensively: Port FC in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Port FC have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Chiangmai United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangmai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Port FC in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chiangmai United
0
Draws
1
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Port FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 1, Port FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2022, when Port FC 1-2 Chiangmai United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Chiangmai United, 60% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Chiangmai United and 40% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Chiangmai United's games and 60% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangmai United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Chiangmai United's matches and 40% of Port FC's.
Do Chiangmai United and Port FC tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Port FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chiangmai United 0-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Chiangmai United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Port FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.18, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 28% | Draw 36% | Port FC 36%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 80%, Port FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangmai United managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.