Chiangmai United 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangmai United at 41%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Chiangmai United versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 26 September 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangmai United have collected 0.33 PPG across 3 Thai League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 1W 0D 2L across 3 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the stronger side — 0.67 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.33). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Chiangmai United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 67% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chiangmai United 100% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 1.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.866 / defence 1.236 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.347. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Chiangmai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Chiangmai United games / 3 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 41% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangmai United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangmai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Chiangmai United 67% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 41% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Chiangmai United 1.61 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.866 / def 1.236 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.798 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Chiangmai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Chiangmai United 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 41% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangmai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.67 | L5 L-D-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chiangmai United's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.80x) against Chiangmai United's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangmai United Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.29
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.94
1.33
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.18
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.33 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangmai United's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangmai United heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangmai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chiangmai United or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangmai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
2
Draws
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Chiangmai United.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 67%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Chiangmai United and 33% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%; Chiangmai United have failed to score in 33% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chiangmai United's matches and 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Chiangmai United and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 1.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.87 / defence 1.24 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.44, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 41% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28%, with Chiangmai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 100%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangmai United conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.