Buriram United 2-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Sukhothai FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Buriram United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Buriram United: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2024, ended 4–0 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 50% versus Sukhothai FC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Buriram United 60% | Sukhothai FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 3.12 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.322 / defence 0.816 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.083 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.157. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 3.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Buriram United games / 43 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 77% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Sukhothai FC 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (3.12 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 60% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 77% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 62% | xG Buriram United 3.12 / Sukhothai FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.322 / def 0.816 | Sukhothai FC attack 1.083 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (77%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
3.12
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sukhothai FC xG
62%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 77% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Buriram United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Buriram United 4W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.12. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.78
8%
12.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.12
Buriram United xG
Total xG
4.14
1.02
Sukhothai FC xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.78
15%
Draw
12.80
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
4%
22.60
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 3.12 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.02 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 40 games, going 27W 12D 1L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (14W 6D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 15W 5D 0L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.55 points per game from 20 outings (2W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.45 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 65%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 27W 12D 1L in their last 40 games (2.33 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 14W 6D 20L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.50 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Buriram United go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Sukhothai FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 50%, Sukhothai FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Buriram United and 75% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Buriram United's games and 70% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Buriram United's matches and 75% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Buriram United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 3.12 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.02 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Sukhothai FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.31, drawn from 40/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 77% | Draw 15% | Sukhothai FC 8%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 60%, Sukhothai FC 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.