Buriram United 0-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chang Arena plays host to Buriram United versus Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 9 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United at Chang Arena this season: 5W 1D 0L from 6 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 1.00 PPG lead over Nong Bua Pitchaya (2.40 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 30% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Buriram United 40% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.59 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.244 / defence 0.794 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.694 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.287. Buriram United's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Buriram United games / 10 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 58% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 17%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 33% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 58% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Buriram United 1.59 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.244 / def 0.794 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.694 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 9 November 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Buriram United 0 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 58% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.24) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.69x) against Buriram United's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
58%
1.71
25%
4.00
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.29
0.71
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
3%
29.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.71 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Buriram United have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 8W 0D 2L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nong Bua Pitchaya.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Buriram United have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.40 PPG overall — Buriram United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.20 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 games (2.40 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Buriram United's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 3.00 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 7-0 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Buriram United
1
Draws
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 5, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Buriram United 7-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 25%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Buriram United) and 25% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Buriram United's recent matches and 75% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Buriram United's recent games and 25% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Buriram United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Nong Bua Pitchaya finished level at 0-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.59 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.71 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.24 / defence 0.79 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.69 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 58% | Draw 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 17%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 40%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.