Yverdon Sport 0-0 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BSC Young Boys make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 1 April 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Yverdon Sport at Stade Municipal this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
BSC Young Boys's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
BSC Young Boys's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Yverdon Sport, 1.60 for BSC Young Boys — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yverdon Sport lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2024, ended 1–5 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 68% and BSC Young Boys 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 68% | BSC Young Boys 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.57 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.035 / defence 1.239 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.965 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.168. Data: 28 Yverdon Sport games / 64 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 24% | BSC Young Boys 34%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | BSC Young Boys 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | BSC Young Boys 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 24% | BSC Young Boys 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.57 / BSC Young Boys 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.035 / def 1.239 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.965 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.40
BSC Young Boys xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 13:15 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 0 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 42% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys?
Record (2 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 1 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 1.03x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (0.96x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 28/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.10
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.96
1.40
BSC Young Boys xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.40 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 6D 13L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 1.93 PPG from 28 outings (16W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
BSC Young Boys carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, BSC Young Boys have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.00 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
BSC Young Boys
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 9W 6D 13L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 16W 6D 6L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.93 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Yverdon Sport or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yverdon Sport have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won 6-1 on 5 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Yverdon Sport
4
Draws
2
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys?
From 6 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 0, BSC Young Boys have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when BSC Young Boys 1-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 64%, BSC Young Boys 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Yverdon Sport and 43% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Yverdon Sport's games and 57% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 43% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Yverdon Sport's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport and BSC Young Boys finished level at 0-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.57 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.40 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.6 short of their projected output. BSC Young Boys landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 42% | Draw 24% | BSC Young Boys 34%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 68%, BSC Young Boys 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.