Lausanne 2-0 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lausanne are significantly better at Stade de la Tuilière than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BSC Young Boys stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BSC Young Boys's 1.90 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lausanne, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 74% and BSC Young Boys 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 67% | BSC Young Boys 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.21 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.848 / defence 1.000 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.053 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.175. Data: 27 Lausanne games / 63 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 37%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | BSC Young Boys 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 50% | BSC Young Boys 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Mar 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Lausanne 1.21 / BSC Young Boys 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.848 / def 1.000 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.053 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.24
BSC Young Boys xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 2 - 0 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 36% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 0 | BSC Young Boys 1W.
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.85x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.66
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.45
1.24
BSC Young Boys xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
9.67
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.24 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 8D 12L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 16W 6D 5L from 27 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 5W 4D 4L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 16W 6D 5L in their last 27 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Lausanne's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.46 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Lausanne or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 62%, BSC Young Boys 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lausanne) and 46% (BSC Young Boys).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lausanne's games and 62% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lausanne's recent games and 46% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over BSC Young Boys.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat BSC Young Boys 2-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.21 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. BSC Young Boys landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 27% | BSC Young Boys 37%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 67%, BSC Young Boys 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.