Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lausanne at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Yverdon Sport at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Tuilière.
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Lausanne are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Lausanne have won 3, Yverdon Sport 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 55% versus Yverdon Sport 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 57% | Yverdon Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.93 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.969 / defence 0.810 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.788 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.245. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Lausanne games / 55 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 63% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 13%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Yverdon Sport 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 40% | Yverdon Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 63% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Lausanne 1.93 / Yverdon Sport 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.969 / def 0.810 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.788 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Yverdon Sport xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne 4 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 63% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lausanne and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Record (6 meetings): Lausanne 3W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 2W.
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.14
13%
7.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.73
0.79
Yverdon Sport xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
7.61
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
2%
52.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.79 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 17D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yverdon Sport sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.28 PPG, Yverdon Sport on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lausanne's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Yverdon Sport have taken 0.47 points per game from 30 outings (2W 8D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.17 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 20W 17D 23L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Lausanne's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.67 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lausanne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Yverdon Sport?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 47%, Yverdon Sport 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lausanne) and 47% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Yverdon Sport in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Yverdon Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lausanne's recent matches and 60% of Yverdon Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lausanne's recent games and 47% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Yverdon Sport 4-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.93 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.79 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.79 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 63% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 13%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.28 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.