Grasshoppers 1-1 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport meet at Stadion Letzigrund in Super League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Grasshoppers (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grasshoppers have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion Letzigrund — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yverdon Sport have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Grasshoppers against 1.10 for Yverdon Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Grasshoppers, 2 for Yverdon Sport and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Grasshoppers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Yverdon Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grasshoppers 52% versus Yverdon Sport 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 44% | Yverdon Sport 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.28 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.845 / defence 1.155 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.853 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.207. Data: 49 Grasshoppers games / 49 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 38% | Draw 29% | Yverdon Sport 34%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Yverdon Sport 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grasshoppers are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Grasshoppers 80% | Yverdon Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 38% | Draw 29% | Yverdon Sport 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Grasshoppers 1.28 / Yverdon Sport 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.845 / def 1.155 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.853 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Grasshoppers 1 - 1 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 38% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
Record (5 meetings): Grasshoppers 2W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 2W.
What form are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Grasshoppers's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.85x) against Grasshoppers's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.50
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Yverdon Sport xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 1.19 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Grasshoppers's recent record stands at 13W 13D 28L from 54 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 25L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Grasshoppers against 1.17 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Grasshoppers have managed 9W 8D 10L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 2W 7D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grasshoppers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 13W 13D 28L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 12D 25L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Grasshoppers's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.30 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Grasshoppers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grasshoppers won 5-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Grasshoppers
2
Draws
2
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
From 8 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 4, Yverdon Sport have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Grasshoppers 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport?
Grasshoppers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grasshoppers 63%, Yverdon Sport 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Grasshoppers) and 48% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Grasshoppers have failed to score in 30% of games; Yverdon Sport in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grasshoppers play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Grasshoppers's games and 59% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grasshoppers vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Grasshoppers's recent games and 48% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
Grasshoppers have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers and Yverdon Sport finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.28 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 38% | Draw 29% | Yverdon Sport 34%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 44%, Yverdon Sport 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grasshoppers's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.96 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.