FC Thun vs FC Sion – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Sion have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, FC Sion are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Sion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 71% and FC Sion 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | FC Sion 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.46 xG and FC Sion 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.762 / defence 1.213 | FC Sion attack 1.147 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.764. FC Thun's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 FC Thun games / 43 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 22% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 59%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 4.55 | Draw 5.26 | FC Sion 1.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Sion (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 60% | FC Sion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 22% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Thun 1.46 / FC Sion 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.762 / def 1.213 | FC Sion attack 1.147 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
2.45
FC Sion xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Sion part of?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 22% chance of winning, FC Sion a 59% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Thun and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
Record (5 meetings): FC Thun 3W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 2W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in?
FC Thun (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Sion (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (1.15x) against FC Thun's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 2.45.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
22%
4.56
19%
5.33
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.92
2.45
FC Sion xG
4.56
22%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
9%
11.63
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
2%
53.03
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Thun and 2.45 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Thun's recent record stands at 27W 4D 17L from 48 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 10L across 48 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for FC Thun against 1.71 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 12W 3D 8L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 9W 8D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.79 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 27W 4D 17L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 22W 16D 10L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Sion away?
FC Thun's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.70 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.52 PPG.
Have FC Thun or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Thun have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, FC Sion in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, FC Sion have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when FC Sion 3-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Sion?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 65%, FC Sion 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for FC Thun and 70% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 30%; FC Thun have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Thun's games and 61% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of FC Thun's matches and 70% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Thun and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.