FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Basel 1893 (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Basel 1893 face Yverdon Sport.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 6W 2D 2L at St. Jakob-Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Super League this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward FC Basel 1893. A 0.60 PPG lead over Yverdon Sport (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Yverdon Sport in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 4–1 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Basel 1893 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 56% versus Yverdon Sport 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 51% | Yverdon Sport 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.98 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.106 / defence 0.845 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.947 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.228. Data: 65 FC Basel 1893 games / 65 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 60% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Yverdon Sport 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | Yverdon Sport 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 60% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.98 / Yverdon Sport 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.106 / def 0.845 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.947 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Yverdon Sport xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 21 April 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 5 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 60% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
Record (6 meetings): FC Basel 1893 4W | Draws 1 | Yverdon Sport 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Yverdon Sport's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.95x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.42
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.96
0.98
Yverdon Sport xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
2%
41.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.98 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 70 outings, FC Basel 1893 have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 30W 17D 23L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 21W 17D 32L from 70 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.14 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Basel 1893 have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 10D 22L from 35 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.19 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 30W 17D 23L in their last 70 games (1.53 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 21W 17D 32L in their last 70 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.69 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.54 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or Yverdon Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Yverdon Sport in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 5-0 on 21 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
1
Draws
1
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, Yverdon Sport have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when FC Basel 1893 5-0 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 54%, Yverdon Sport 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Basel 1893) and 49% (Yverdon Sport).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Basel 1893's games and 66% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 49% of Yverdon Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Yverdon Sport 5-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.98 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.98 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Yverdon Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.11 / defence 0.84 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 60% | Draw 23% | Yverdon Sport 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 51%, Yverdon Sport 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.53 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.