Trelleborg 1-1 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Utsikten at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Utsikten — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 1.60 PPG versus Utsikten's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 3, Utsikten 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Trelleborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Utsikten in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 50% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 50% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.44 xG and Utsikten 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.881 / defence 0.890 | Utsikten attack 1.123 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.357. Data: 41 Trelleborg games / 41 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 35%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 50% | Utsikten 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Trelleborg 1.44 / Utsikten 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.881 / def 0.890 | Utsikten attack 1.123 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Utsikten xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Utsikten kick off?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 June 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Utsikten.
Where is Trelleborg vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Utsikten part of?
Trelleborg vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 39% chance of winning, Utsikten a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trelleborg and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Record (6 meetings): Trelleborg 3W | Draws 2 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.88) and Utsikten's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
39%
2.55
25%
3.96
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.80
1.36
Utsikten xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.36 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 22W 15D 23L from 60 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Utsikten, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 19L across 60 games — 1.52 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.35 PPG, Utsikten on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 13W 7D 10L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Utsikten's away record stands at 9W 9D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Utsikten in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Utsikten away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.53 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Utsikten runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jul 2023, when Utsikten won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
3
Draws
2
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, Utsikten have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Utsikten 3-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Utsikten?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 47%, Utsikten 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 37% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 47% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 37% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Utsikten tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Utsikten share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Utsikten finished level at 1-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.44 xG and Utsikten 1.36 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.89 against Utsikten attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 39% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 35%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 50%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.35 PPG, Utsikten 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.