Trelleborg 1-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet in-form Falkenbergs FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Falkenbergs FF at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vångavallen, Trelleborg have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Falkenbergs FF — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 1, Falkenbergs FF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2025, ended 0–4 with Falkenbergs FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Falkenbergs FF in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 37% versus Falkenbergs FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 48% | Falkenbergs FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.45 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.710 / defence 1.008 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.991 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.180. Trelleborg's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Trelleborg games / 27 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Falkenbergs FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Falkenbergs FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trelleborg 30% | Falkenbergs FF 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Trelleborg 1.45 / Falkenbergs FF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.710 / def 1.008 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.991 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Falkenbergs FF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 43% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (3 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 2W.
What form are Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.71x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.72
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.18
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.18 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 5W 5D 17L from 27 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 7L across 27 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Falkenbergs FF by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Trelleborg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 3W 4D 6L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Falkenbergs FF's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Falkenbergs FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.85 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Falkenbergs FF in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.00 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Trelleborg
1
Draws
2
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 1, Falkenbergs FF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Trelleborg 1-1 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 23%, Falkenbergs FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Trelleborg) and 62% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Falkenbergs FF in 38%; Trelleborg have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 54% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Trelleborg's recent games and 62% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Falkenbergs FF finished level at 1-1 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.45 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 48%, Falkenbergs FF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Falkenbergs FF arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.