Sandviken 5-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandviken at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sandviken welcome Ostersunds FK to Jernvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ostersunds FK's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sandviken 1.40 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sandviken, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 52% versus Ostersunds FK 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 63% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.913 / defence 1.094 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.597 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.208. Data: 59 Sandviken games / 59 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 54% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 60% | Ostersunds FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 54% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Sandviken 1.53 / Ostersunds FK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.913 / def 1.094 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.597 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ostersunds FK xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken 5 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 54% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sandviken and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Sandviken 2W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in?
Sandviken (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sandviken's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.70
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.31
0.79
Ostersunds FK xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
24.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.79 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sandviken's recent record stands at 23W 12D 24L from 59 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 24L across 59 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 15W 4D 10L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 4W 8D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 23W 12D 24L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Sandviken's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.69 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2025, when Sandviken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sandviken
1
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-1 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Ostersunds FK?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 52%, Ostersunds FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sandviken) and 34% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Sandviken have failed to score in 28% of games; Ostersunds FK in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sandviken's recent matches and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Sandviken's recent games and 34% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Ostersunds FK 5-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.53 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.60 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 54% | Draw 27% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.37 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.