Orgryte IS 0-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Helsingborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Orgryte IS at Gamla Ullevi this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Helsingborg's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Orgryte IS have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orgryte IS, 3 for Helsingborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 62% versus Helsingborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 57% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 2.21 xG and Helsingborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.494 / defence 0.747 | Helsingborg attack 0.992 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.353. Orgryte IS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.494 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Orgryte IS games / 43 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Helsingborg 16%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Helsingborg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Orgryte IS (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Helsingborg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Helsingborg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Orgryte IS 2.21 / Helsingborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.494 / def 0.747 | Helsingborg attack 0.992 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Helsingborg xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Orgryte IS 0 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 65% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orgryte IS and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Record (6 meetings): Orgryte IS 2W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 3W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.49x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.19
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.21
1.00
Helsingborg xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
11%
9.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
57.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.00 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 14D 24L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.33 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Helsingborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Helsingborg away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.37 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2021, when Helsingborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Orgryte IS
1
Draws
4
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 3, Helsingborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Helsingborg 0-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 70%, Helsingborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Orgryte IS and 53% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Orgryte IS's games and 50% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Orgryte IS's matches and 53% of Helsingborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Orgryte IS 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 2.21 xG and Helsingborg 1.00 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orgryte IS fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.49 / defence 0.75 against Helsingborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 65% | Draw 19% | Helsingborg 16%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Helsingborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 57%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG, Helsingborg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.