Orebro SK 4-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 56%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Landskrona BoIS's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Orebro SK's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orebro SK, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–3 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 52% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 2.04 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.087 / defence 0.862 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.153 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.235. Data: 58 Orebro SK games / 58 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 56% | Draw 21% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Landskrona BoIS 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 56% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 56% | Draw 21% | Landskrona BoIS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Orebro SK 2.04 / Landskrona BoIS 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.087 / def 0.862 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.153 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orebro SK 4 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 56% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
56%
1.78
21%
4.70
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.26
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
3%
33.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.23 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 17D 24L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 22W 17D 19L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.17 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 8D 13L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.36 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.48 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 41%, Landskrona BoIS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Orebro SK) and 55% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 52% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Orebro SK's recent games and 55% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Landskrona BoIS 4-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 2.04 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.15 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 56% | Draw 21% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 52%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.17 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.