Utsikten 0-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host Gefle IF at Bravida Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utsikten have posted 6W 3D 1L at Bravida Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gefle IF — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utsikten at 0.90 PPG versus Gefle IF's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Utsikten have won 0, Gefle IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Gefle IF trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 57% versus Gefle IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 57% | Gefle IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.98 xG and Gefle IF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.200 / defence 0.908 | Gefle IF attack 0.822 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.267. Data: 58 Utsikten games / 28 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 61% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 17%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Gefle IF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Utsikten (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 70% | Gefle IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 61% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Utsikten 1.98 / Gefle IF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.200 / def 0.908 | Gefle IF attack 0.822 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gefle IF xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Gefle IF kick off?
Utsikten vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 3 November 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Utsikten 0 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Utsikten vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Gefle IF part of?
Utsikten vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 61% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Utsikten and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
Record (1 meetings): Utsikten 0W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Utsikten and Gefle IF in?
Utsikten (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 1.20x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.72
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.93
0.94
Gefle IF xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
14%
7.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
41.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Utsikten and 0.94 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 15W 6D 7L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Gefle IF's form line: 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Utsikten are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gefle IF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (9W 3D 2L).
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 2W 5D 7L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.25 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 15W 6D 7L in their last 28 games (1.82 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Gefle IF away?
Utsikten's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 2.14 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Utsikten's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Utsikten
3
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 0, Gefle IF have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Gefle IF 2-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Utsikten at 71%, Gefle IF at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Utsikten and 50% for Gefle IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Utsikten's games and 64% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Utsikten's matches and 50% of Gefle IF's.
Do Utsikten and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utsikten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten and Gefle IF finished level at 0-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.98 xG and Gefle IF 0.94 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utsikten fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Gefle IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Gefle IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 61% | Draw 21% | Gefle IF 17%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 57%, Gefle IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gefle IF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.