Orebro SK 3-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs IK brage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 30 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IK brage (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
IK brage away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Orebro SK. A 0.70 PPG lead over IK brage (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
IK brage hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with IK brage winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IK brage have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus IK brage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | IK brage 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.69 xG and IK brage 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.669 / defence 1.070 | IK brage attack 0.854 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.343. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IK brage's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Orebro SK games / 40 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 30% | IK brage 49%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | IK brage 2.04. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Orebro SK's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
IK brage lead the H2H ledger, but Orebro SK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 50% | IK brage 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 21% | Draw 30% | IK brage 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Orebro SK 0.69 / IK brage 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.669 / def 1.070 | IK brage attack 0.854 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: IK brage (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IK brage xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IK brage kick off?
Orebro SK vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 30 May 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Orebro SK 3 - 3 IK brage.
Where is Orebro SK vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IK brage part of?
Orebro SK vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 21% chance of winning, IK brage a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Orebro SK and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
Record (6 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | IK brage 5W.
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against IK brage's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.85x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
21%
4.79
30%
3.33
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.92
1.23
IK brage xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 18.0 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.23 for IK brage, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 19D 23L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, IK brage sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (23W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Orebro SK's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IK brage have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IK brage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.17 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IK brage in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IK brage away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.77 PPG; IK brage away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IK brage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
2
Draws
6
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, IK brage have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when IK brage 3-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
IK brage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, IK brage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 33% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 37% of games; IK brage in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 40% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 33% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Orebro SK and IK brage share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 11, as Orebro SK and IK brage drew 3-3 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.69 xG and IK brage 1.23 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.67 / defence 1.07 against IK brage attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 21% | Draw 30% | IK brage 49%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, IK brage 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.22 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.