Orebro SK 0-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Orebro SK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at Behrn Arena than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Orebro SK, 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Orebro SK 1W, GIF Sundsvall 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 3–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Orebro SK — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 60% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 2.09 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.182 / defence 0.906 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.543 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.217. Data: 50 Orebro SK games / 50 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 72% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 9%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | GIF Sundsvall 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Orebro SK (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 70% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 72% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 40% | xG Orebro SK 2.09 / GIF Sundsvall 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.182 / def 0.906 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.543 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 72% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.18x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.54x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.19
9%
11.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.69
0.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
11.21
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
12%
8.10
Win to Nil
39%
2.54
1%
90.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.60 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 14W 15D 21L from 50 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 24L across 50 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Orebro SK against 1.08 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 11W 10D 4L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 5D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIF Sundsvall's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.72 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 10 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 0-3 on 10 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
3
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 48%, GIF Sundsvall 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Orebro SK) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 32% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Orebro SK's recent games and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Orebro SK and GIF Sundsvall drew 0-0 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 2.09 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.60 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.54 / defence 1.20, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 72% | Draw 19% | GIF Sundsvall 9%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 60%, GIF Sundsvall 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.14 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.