Jonkopings Sodra 0-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Vasteras SK FK to Stadsparksvallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's home record at Stadsparksvallen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jonkopings Sodra's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 48% versus Vasteras SK FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Vasteras SK FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 0.98 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.802 / defence 1.081 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.877 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.236. Data: 27 Jonkopings Sodra games / 27 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 30% | Vasteras SK FK 40%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Vasteras SK FK 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 30% | Vasteras SK FK 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 0.98 / Vasteras SK FK 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.802 / def 1.081 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.877 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Vasteras SK FK xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 30% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jonkopings Sodra's attack rating (0.80) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
30%
3.30
30%
3.35
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.15
1.17
Vasteras SK FK xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.17 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 7D 11L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.26 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.22 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.69 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
2
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Vasteras SK FK 3-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 54%, Vasteras SK FK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 31% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 31%; Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 46% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 31% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jonkopings Sodra's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 28, as Jonkopings Sodra and Vasteras SK FK drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 0.98 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.17 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.88 / defence 1.12, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 30% | Draw 30% | Vasteras SK FK 40%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 41%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.26 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.