IK brage 2-2 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Utsikten travel to Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Domnarvsvallen this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Utsikten away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.30 (Utsikten). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Utsikten, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for IK brage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Utsikten have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Utsikten trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Utsikten 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Utsikten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.16 xG and Utsikten 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.734 / defence 1.124 | Utsikten attack 1.123 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. IK brage's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 IK brage games / 39 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 27% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 48%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Utsikten 2.08. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 30% | Utsikten 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 27% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG IK brage 1.16 / Utsikten 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.734 / def 1.124 | Utsikten attack 1.123 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Utsikten xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Utsikten kick off?
IK brage vs Utsikten kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Utsikten?
IK brage 2 - 2 Utsikten.
Where is IK brage vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Utsikten part of?
IK brage vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 27% chance of winning, Utsikten a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IK brage and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Utsikten?
Record (6 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 1 | Utsikten 4W.
What form are IK brage and Utsikten in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Utsikten (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Utsikten's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
27%
3.64
25%
4.04
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.76
1.60
Utsikten xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
6%
18.12
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are IK brage and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for IK brage and 1.60 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.52 PPG from 60 outings (25W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Utsikten on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.42 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Utsikten
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Utsikten in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Utsikten away?
IK brage's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.87 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IK brage or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Utsikten in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Utsikten won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Utsikten?
From 8 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Utsikten have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Utsikten 2-1 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Utsikten see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Utsikten 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 37% (Utsikten).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Utsikten in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Utsikten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 47% of Utsikten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 37% of Utsikten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Utsikten tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage and Utsikten share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage and Utsikten finished level at 2-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.16 xG and Utsikten 1.60 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Utsikten attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 27% | Draw 25% | Utsikten 48%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Utsikten 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Utsikten's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Utsikten 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.