IK brage 1-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandviken make the trip to Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 27 June 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Domnarvsvallen this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandviken have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Sandviken away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Sandviken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 40% versus Sandviken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 33% | Sandviken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.60 xG and Sandviken 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.946 / defence 1.151 | Sandviken attack 0.851 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.346. Data: 43 IK brage games / 43 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 44% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 32%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 30% | Sandviken 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jun 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 44% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG IK brage 1.60 / Sandviken 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.946 / def 1.151 | Sandviken attack 0.851 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: IK brage (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sandviken xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Sandviken kick off?
IK brage vs Sandviken kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 27 June 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Sandviken?
IK brage 1 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is IK brage vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Sandviken part of?
IK brage vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 44% chance of winning, Sandviken a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IK brage and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Sandviken?
Record (2 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are IK brage and Sandviken in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sandviken (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.85x) against IK brage's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.09
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.92
1.32
Sandviken xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IK brage and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for IK brage and 1.32 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 8D 11L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for IK brage against 1.43 for Sandviken. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IK brage's home form reads 7W 3D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.63 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Sandviken in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Sandviken away?
IK brage's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.60 PPG; Sandviken away: 0.93 PPG.
Have IK brage or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sandviken in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 June 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 2-5 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
IK brage
0
Draws
3
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Sandviken?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Sandviken have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 14 June 2026, when Sandviken 3-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 33%, Sandviken 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (IK brage) and 67% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Sandviken in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of IK brage's recent matches and 60% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of IK brage's recent games and 67% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Sandviken tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sandviken defy the odds to beat IK brage 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat IK brage 1-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.60 xG and Sandviken 1.32 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.95 / defence 1.15 against Sandviken attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 44% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 32%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 33%, Sandviken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Sandviken 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.