IK brage 3-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 12 as IK brage welcome Orgryte IS to Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IK brage's home record at Domnarvsvallen: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for IK brage, 3 for Orgryte IS and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 43% versus Orgryte IS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Orgryte IS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.38 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.845 / defence 1.118 | Orgryte IS attack 1.002 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.357. Data: 41 IK brage games / 41 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 34% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 41%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orgryte IS as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 30% | Orgryte IS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 34% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IK brage 1.38 / Orgryte IS 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.845 / def 1.118 | Orgryte IS attack 1.002 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 June 2025 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
IK brage 3 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is IK brage vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Orgryte IS part of?
IK brage vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 34% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IK brage and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
Record (8 meetings): IK brage 3W | Draws 2 | Orgryte IS 3W.
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
34%
2.91
25%
4.05
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.90
1.52
Orgryte IS xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.30
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IK brage and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IK brage and 1.52 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (22W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 17W 5D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Orgryte IS away?
IK brage's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.87 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.30 PPG.
Have IK brage or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when IK brage won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IK brage
3
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Orgryte IS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Orgryte IS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 47%, Orgryte IS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 43% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IK brage's recent matches and 53% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 43% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Orgryte IS 3-2 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.38 xG and Orgryte IS 1.52 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Orgryte IS attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 34% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 41%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Orgryte IS 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.